基于负荷预测的0.4 kV配网低电压风险评估方法

我国现阶段的配电网网架结构依然十分薄弱,智能化水平低,缺乏先进的检测技术和高效的运维模式。在现阶段低压电气信息不开源的情况下,为解决0.4 kV配网无差别运维效率低的问题,文章分析了适用于低压配网状态评估的评价维度,并基于负荷预测结果提出了低压台区低电压风险评估方法,引入了微增容量所引起的压降比,实现对低电压风险的定期管控。该文对于优化低压配电网运维资源配置、指导低压配网差异化运维模式的建立,以及提高低压配电网运维整治效率具有一定的参考价值。     

“电网一张图”时空信息管理系统

文章首先总结了电力企业信息管理系统的现状,提出了多源信息管理系统融合集成的邦联、子集和完全融合3种方式,分析了3种方式的优缺点,以建设企业"互联网搜索"型数字引擎为目标,提出了融合基于本体的图数据库建模,多维关联与路径因果分析,和人机共生互动可视化决策于一体的企业信息管理系统技术发展趋势;在系统分析目前正在快速发展的图数据库技术与传统关系数据库之间的本质区别基础上,总结原创的电力图计算平台技术的特点;在此基础上讨论"电网一张图"在建设能源互联网时空信息管理平台数据关联索引图中的核心作用,提出了支持能源互联网建设的"电网一张图"时空信息管理系统的技术架构与特点,最后总结"电网一张图"时空信息管理系统在提高电网安全运行水平、提升客户服务水平、增强清洁能源消纳水平、改善经营绩效水平、以及为综合能源服务和建设能源生态等提供数据服务方面的广阔应用场景。     

风速时间序列混沌判定方法比较研究

混沌识别是对非线性时间序列进行混沌预测的前提。针对时间序列风速确定性与随机性相结合的复杂非线性特征,研究了不同的混沌识别方法,并对风速时间序列进行混沌特征识别。应用随机噪声、周期运动及经典混沌系统的时间序列对所选方法进行可靠性验证。对美国国家风能研究中心M2测风塔实测时间序列风速数据进行非线性混沌特征识别。结果表明:风速时间序列具有明显的混沌特征;各风速时间序列表现出不同程度的混沌特征;各混沌识别方法对风速时间序列混沌特征的表达形式不同,互为补充,相互验证。     

Influence of particle contact models on soil response of poorly graded sand during cavity expansion in discrete element simulation

The discrete element method (DEM) has been extensively adopted to investigate many complex geotechnical related problems due to its capability to incorporate the discontinuous nature of granular materials. In particular, when simulating large deformations or distortion of soil (e.g. cavity expansion), DEM can be very effective as other numerical solutions may experience convergence problems. Cavity expansion theory has widespread applications in geotechnical engineering, particularly to the problems concerning in situ testing, pile installation and so forth. In addition, the behaviour of geomaterials in a macro-level is utterly determined by microscopic properties, highlighting the importance of contact models. Despite the fact that there are numerous contact models proposed to mimic the realistic behaviour of granular materials, there are lack of studies on the effects of these contact models on the soil response. Hence, in this study, a series of three-dimensional numerical simulations with different contact constitutive models was conducted to simulate the response of sandy soils during cylindrical cavity expansion. In this numerical investigation, three contact models, i.e. linear contact model, rolling resistance contact model, and Hertz contact model, are considered. It should be noted that the former two models are linear based models, providing linearly elastic and frictional plasticity behaviours, whereas the latter one consists of nonlinear formulation based on an approximation of the theory of Mindlin and Deresiewicz. To examine the effects of these contact models, several cylindrical cavities were created and expanded gradually from an initial radius of 0.055 m to a final radius of 0.1 m. The numerical predictions confirm that the calibrated contact models produced similar results regarding the variations of cavity pressure, radial stress, deviatoric stress, volumetric strain, as well as the soil radial displacement. However, the linear contact model may result in inaccurate predictions when highly angular soil particles are involved. In addition, considering the excessive soil displacement induced by the pile installation (i.e. cavity expansion), a minimum distance of 11a (a is the cavity radius) is recommend for practicing engineers to avoid the potential damages to the existing piles and adjacent structures.     

工程建设标准客观优先度评价研究

在工程建设标准的制定和修订过程中，如何科学地确定编制顺序一直是困扰标准管理部门的难题，采用传统方式“按需制标”，具有盲目性、主观性，容易造成标准在制定和修订过程中的互相重复、滞后与矛盾。为了保证标准制定和修订工作的协调性，指导标准体系中各标准的制修订顺序，引入复杂网络拓扑结构，将同一标准类型下的标准构成功能团，根据相互之间的关系形成复杂网络，采用剥落算法对其网络节点重要性排序，进而确定标准制修订的优先度。通过对建筑给水排水工程规范标准修订的实证分析，总结工程建设标准的网络拓扑优先度评价的算法模型，实现制定和修订顺序的自动计算，从而更加科学地指导标准的制定和修订工作     

Co-creation of value and the project context: Towards application on the case of Hinkley Point C Nuclear Power Station

The research analyses decisions as evaluative outcomes regarding project value. The UK-French Hinkley Point C Nuclear Power Station provides the case study. Value is traditionally assessed as inputs and outputs. Here, value is conceptualized as a co-created value proposition at the front-end with implications for realization post-completion. Service-dominant logic (SDL) provides the theoretical lens and contributes to a methodological approach for examining projects. Decision-making outcomes provide the evidence from a range of data sources, including reports and commentaries. The methods are interpretative. The findings show that decision-making extends beyond the time-cost-quality/scope dimensions. The long-term issues regarding value realized are often overlooked. Stakeholders and individual actors have mainly focused upon managing political and financial risks, especially time and cost. The research poses challenges to project management analysis, SDL and research design in assessing evidence. Addressing these issues facilitates a knowledge contribution to SDL theorization and the field of project management.     

Study and comparison of the unique selling propositions (USPs) of free-to-use multinational patent search systems

The article analyses and compares some free-to-use patent search services which are not managed by patent authorities but which may offer unique selling propositions (USPs) beyond the expected, standard, search functions. Those services selected for this study are Google Patents, Lens, Patent Inspiration, Free Patents Online, SureChEMBL and Octimine. For this comparative study a total set of 66 criteria were analysed for each of the six search services. Furthermore the USPs and perceived advantages and disadvantages were identified. The study concluded that some of these search services are better suited for general prior art searches or patent analysis while others are applicable for patent searches in specific fields like biotechnology or pharmaceuticals.     

Ex post demand information sharing between differentiated suppliers and a common retailer

We consider ex post demand information sharing in a two-echelon supply chain in which two suppliers sell differentiated products through a common retailer. We model three scenarios of information sharing to characterise the conditions under which information sharing may benefit or hurt different players: (1) no supplier is informed; (2) only one supplier is informed; and (3) both suppliers are informed. We find that the retailer may voluntarily share the low demand information when the product differentiation and demand magnitude satisfy certain conditions. In contrast, the retailer has no incentive to share the high demand information, even though this information benefits the suppliers. To achieve information sharing, we propose a side payment mechanism, which allows benefitted players to subsidise hurtful players. Finally, we extend our model by considering a situation where the suppliers have limited capacity and may invest to ramp up production capacity to satisfy a high demand.     

An expectation operator for belief functions in the Dempster–Shafer theory*

ABSTRACT

The main contribution of this paper is a new definition of expected value of belief functions in the Dempster–Shafer (D–S) theory of evidence. Our definition shares many of the properties of the expectation operator in probability theory. Also, for Bayesian belief functions, our definition provides the same expected value as the probabilistic expectation operator. A traditional method of computing expected of real-valued functions is to first transform a D–S belief function to a corresponding probability mass function, and then use the expectation operator for probability mass functions. Transforming a belief function to a probability function involves loss of information. Our expectation operator works directly with D–S belief functions. Another definition is using Choquet integration, which assumes belief functions are credal sets, i.e. convex sets of probability mass functions. Credal sets semantics are incompatible with Dempster's combination rule, the center-piece of the D–S theory. In general, our definition provides different expected values than, e.g. if we use probabilistic expectation using the pignistic transform or the plausibility transform of a belief function. Using our definition of expectation, we provide new definitions of variance, covariance, correlation, and other higher moments and describe their properties.